Currently, Bitcoin is stronger than Ethereum and SOL. ETH's spot price just experienced a dip deeper than the previous four times. If Bitcoin can continue to be strong, there is a glimmer of hope for a market restart in the crypto space. After all, whether or not the crypto market is a leading indicator for the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin is the king of the crypto world, and a new bullish trend can only be initiated by Bitcoin. However, as it stands, the probability is still relatively low, and it is in a state that has just ignited.
If it really wants to start, at the very least, it needs to be slightly stronger than what is drawn in the chart; otherwise, we can only follow a rebound short logic.
From the market structure perspective, today Bitcoin moved quite orderly: after dipping to the 0.786 level (110,973) in the 124k–107k range, it quickly rebounded back up to the 0.618 level (113,883). If the rebound can continue, the next target is likely the 0.382 level (114,477). If the trend replicates the rhythm from early August, the upper Bollinger Band around 115,000 on the 4-hour chart may be the limit for a short-term rebound, after which it will likely need to retest before choosing a direction.
Setting aside the market and looking at macro connections, since peaking at 117,800 on September 18 and then retreating, we can clearly see a negative correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury yields and gold. In other words: when gold rises, Bitcoin is pressured; when gold peaks, Bitcoin has room for a rebound or even gradually reaching new highs. If gold confirms a peak and retreats today, then Bitcoin may have even greater upward potential. Let's watch and see.
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