永恒牛市-牛市开空
永恒牛市-牛市开空
Full-time writing, high-frequency output.
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Crash happened
Account opening banned?
Is this wave going to repeat 3/12?
Or 5/12
Every May
There’s always a mysterious black swan
Totally unstoppable
The crypto market looks bearish in the short term, and this time it’s not an ordinary correction, but regulatory signals starting to pressure risk assets.
Tiger Brokers, Futu, and Changqiao were fined and entered a 2-year focused rectification period, apparently due to cross-border stock trading channel issues.
But the truly scary part is: regulators are not only looking at stocks but are cleaning up the "gray paths" of "roundabout investments."
Previously, a lot of funds could buy US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, ETFs through overseas brokers, apps, and related entities, even further flowing into high-risk assets.
Now this channel has been named, indicating regulators have started to monitor capital outflows, account opening channels, trading services, and investor suitability.
This is not a direct negative for the crypto market.
But it creates a bigger problem: funds become hesitant to move.
What the crypto market fears most is not bad news, but liquidity suddenly drying up.
Once cross-border investment channels tighten, risk appetite cools first.
First cut high-volatility US stocks.
Then cut small-cap tech stocks.
Finally, assets in the crypto space that have no fundamental support and rely entirely on sentiment and liquidity to push prices up.
This is why I say the crypto market now faces crash risk.
Not because a particular coin or project has issues.
But because the external funding environment is changing.
Regulatory tightening, a big IPO year absorbing liquidity, frequent long-short contract squeezes like HYPE, combined with sentiment-driven events like Pizza Day, make the market prone to a false sense of excitement.
On the surface, everyone is still predicting hash rates, scrambling for BTC, talking about SpaceX and OpenAI listings.
But the actual market may already be quietly retreating.
This is the most dangerous time.
The news is hot.
The community is excited.
But funds are becoming cautious.
If BTC fails to hold key support, altcoins will fall even harder than BTC.
Because small coins lack a liquidity moat.
They rise on sentiment and fall on panic selling.
This rectification also serves as a reminder to the crypto space: once regulators start cleaning up the gray areas of cross-border investments, the crypto market’s capital inflows, outflows, and off-exchange liquidity will all be emotionally impacted.
My judgment is straightforward:
The crypto market is bearish in the short term.
If BTC continues to break key support, altcoins will likely experience a second wave of sharp declines.
High leverage, newly pumped coins, and pure sentiment plays will be hit first.
Don’t rush to call a bull market yet.
What really matters is not whose story sounds better, but whether funds dare to enter the market.
Risk warning:
This article is for market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital assets are highly volatile; control positions cautiously and avoid high leverage.
#加息重回讨论桌:沃什就任,年底加息正式定价 #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #SEC推迟美股代币化计划 $BTC $ETH $BSB
Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to impose severe penalties on cross-border brokers such as Tiger, Futu, and Changqiao in accordance with the law. This news has sparked widespread market attention on trading channels for mainland Chinese users. From an industry impact perspective, this regulatory action is likely to lead to a comprehensive clearance of existing mainland users on the related platforms, and this change may bring significant benefits to the on-chain US stock sector's representative project $ONDO.
Against the backdrop of tightening regulation on traditional cross-border brokers, mainland Chinese US stock investors who are cleared still have strong trading demands. For users accustomed to participating in international capital markets, finding compliant and convenient alternative channels has become an urgent priority. In such a market environment, on-chain US stocks, with their decentralized and cross-border circulation features, are gradually becoming the "only choice" in the eyes of some users. Especially with the accelerated development of the RWA (Real World Assets) sector, US stocks on-chain are considered one of the most promising application scenarios. This model, which combines traditional financial assets with blockchain technology, is reshaping the ecological landscape of cross-border investment.
As a leading project in the on-chain US stock field, ONDO currently holds more than 70% of the market share, demonstrating strong industry competitiveness. Notably, the stock trading functions of several mainstream exchanges and platforms, including Binance Wallet, are built based on the ONDO protocol, which means its technical foundation and market recognition have been widely validated. As the service space for traditional cross-border brokers shrinks, a large number of users seeking US stock trading may turn to the crypto space to meet their investment needs through on-chain channels. ONDO, with its first-mover advantage and market position, is expected to become the core beneficiary in this user migration process.
In summary, regulatory policies restricting traditional cross-border brokers are creating new development opportunities for on-chain US stocks. As a leader in this field, ONDO's market share, technical support, and ecological cooperation advantages will enable it to seize important business growth opportunities during the user demand shift, with long-term positive effects worth attention. #加息重回讨论桌:沃什就任,年底加息正式定价 #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #SEC推迟美股代币化计划 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Don't be afraid
Technical pullback
Good days are still ahead
Prepare to go back starting with 6
Watch and cherish it
BTC is still bearish in the short term; if 75,600 doesn't hold, any rebound lacks conviction.
Currently, BTC is around 75,545, down 1.58% in 24 hours.
From 77,866 down to 75,180, this is not a simple retracement but a weak recovery after continuous losses at high levels.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 75,469, MA10 at 75,418, and MA20 at 75,537.
The price is barely clinging near the short-term moving averages and hasn't truly distanced itself.
This indicates the bulls are currently defending, not attacking.
Next, watch these three levels:
75,600 holding is needed for sideways consolidation.
Reclaiming 76,000 means short-term breathing room.
Breaking below 75,180 likely tests 75,000.
#PizzaFestivalFrenzy: Predicting Hashrate beating BTC, dare to make a prediction?
The Pizza Festival can ignite sentiment but can't save a weak market.
Predicting hashrate, winning BTC, festival celebrations—all are about participation.
But the market is more realistic now: BTC hasn't reclaimed 76,000, so funds won't chase easily.
Crypto folks can celebrate, but trading can't rely on holiday fantasies.
#IPOYear: SpaceX leads, OpenAI follows closely
Super IPO narratives like SpaceX and OpenAI will refocus market attention on tech assets.
This is a double-edged sword for BTC.
The upside is risk appetite might be sparked.
The downside is funds might be diverted to massive IPOs.
If liquidity is drained, high-volatility assets like BTC are more easily suppressed short-term.
#HYPELongShortBattle: Biggest short liquidation account deleted
The long-short struggle in HYPE shows the market isn't in a slow upward environment.
It's a place where sentiment triggers squeezes and then panics.
BTC is the same now.
75,180 is the short-term bottom line.
If held, there will be oscillation and recovery.
If not, bears will continue to push down.
My judgment is straightforward:
BTC is currently weak and bearish.
If 75,600 doesn't hold, don't rush to expect a counterattack.
Reclaiming 76,000 means recovery.
Breaking 75,180 means further downside.
Don't be misled by the Pizza Festival and IPO stories now.
What really matters is whether BTC can reclaim 76,000.
Risk warning:
This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly; please make independent judgments and cautious decisions.
#加息重回讨论桌:沃什就任,年底加息正式定价 #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #SEC推迟美股代币化计划 $ETH $HYPE $NEAR
Doubling up
These days are really hard to endure
Even a one-time short position gets liquidated
What else can you play
The market is falling like this
He still doesn't come down
Why
BSB short-term continues to look bullish, as long as 1.10 is not broken, the bulls are not over yet.
This wave has pulled from 0.5000 to 1.1806, with a 24-hour increase directly hitting 118.86%.
This kind of movement is no longer an ordinary rebound, but funds are playing the sentiment game.
But the problem is also very real: the faster it rises, the more you have to guard against profit-taking at high levels.
Now the most critical position for BSB is not 1.15, but whether it can break through 1.18.
If it breaks through, there is still a possibility of further short-term gains.
If it can't break through, it is easy to enter intense turnover between 1.10 and 1.18.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 1.0964, MA10 at 1.0400, and MA20 at 0.9942.
The price is clearly above the three short-term moving averages, the bullish structure remains.
This indicates that BSB is not a weak rebound, but a high-level confirmation after a strong rally.
The next three lines are very clear:
Hold 1.10, continue to be bullish.
Break through 1.18, sentiment will continue to accelerate.
Break below 0.994, the strong structure will start to cool down significantly.
This Pizza Festival topic actually suits BSB very well.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗?
The crypto market never lacks sentiment triggers.
Predicting hash, winning BTC, Pizza Festival celebrations—all essentially mobilize market participation.
BSB is currently in this state.
It's not that no one fears the highs, but funds are still willing to take over.
As long as the price does not fall below 1.10, short-term sentiment remains.
#IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后
Super IPO expectations like SpaceX and OpenAI will make the market revisit discussions on tech assets and risk appetite.
This is neither a one-sided positive nor negative for the crypto market.
The positive is that the tech narrative heats up, making funds more willing to take risks.
The pressure is that giant IPOs may also divert liquidity.
So for highly elastic targets like BSB, what really matters is not how hot the external news is, but whether the market can continue to absorb it.
#HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号
The long-short battle of HYPE shows that the market now loves trading "extreme emotions."
Short liquidations, account deletions, squeezes—all these make short-term funds more inclined to seek the next high-volatility target.
BSB's recent rally just hits this market taste.
But be aware, strong coins fear two things:
One is a high push without a breakthrough.
Two is volume expansion without price increase.
If BSB can't surpass 1.18 for a long time, short-term profit-taking is very likely to come out first.
My judgment is straightforward:
BSB is currently relatively strong and bullish.
As long as 1.10 is not broken, the bulls remain.
Break through 1.18, continue to look for a rally.
Break below 0.994, first watch for a pullback and cooling off.
Don't just focus on how much it has risen now.
What really matters is whether funds dare to push BSB past 1.18.
Risk warning:
This article is only an analysis of the crypto market information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and the market risk is high. Please make independent judgments and decisions cautiously.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $BTC $ETH $HYPE
Time to get up and collect the crops
Last night the dog whales kept selling
Made some profit
Time to wake up and go buy an electric car to deliver food
BEAT is bullish in the short term, but don’t rush to chase hard before breaking 1.28.
This wave pulled from 0.7296 to 1.2779, a 15.91% increase in 24 hours, showing clear strength.
The key now is not how much it has risen, but whether 1.23 can hold.
If it holds, BEAT still has a chance to push higher.
If it doesn’t hold, the high-level turnover will turn into a pullback.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 1.2307, MA10 at 1.2147, and MA20 at 1.1939.
The price is still above all three short-term moving averages, bulls remain in control.
So, this is not a time to be bearish, but rather a pressure test after the rally.
The next three lines are clear:
If 1.23 doesn’t break, continue to be bullish.
If 1.2779 breaks, short-term sentiment will accelerate.
If 1.1939 breaks, the strong structure starts to cool down.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗?
Pizza Day is essentially the emotional engine of the crypto circle.
Some predict hash rate, some scramble for the BTC prize pool, some watch the order book.
BEAT’s movement is similar; when funds come in, it’s fast, and heated sentiment easily pushes prices up.
But the more this kind of market heats up, the more you can’t just watch the excitement.
What really matters is whether there is sustained support at the high level.
#IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后
If SpaceX and OpenAI continue to draw market attention, risk appetite will be reignited.
But this is a double-edged sword for small coins.
Funds willing to take risks can benefit high-volatility targets like BEAT.
But once liquidity is diverted by mega IPOs, small coins are the easiest to be cashed out first.
#HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号
The long-short battle in HYPE shows the market is no longer in a stage of slow reasoning.
When funds get hyped, they force liquidations directly.
BEAT has this flavor too.
As long as 1.23 holds, bulls will keep pressing shorts.
But if it falls below 1.19, the chasing bulls will run fast.
My judgment is straightforward:
BEAT is currently strong and bullish.
If 1.23 holds, continue to expect bulls controlling the market.
If 1.2779 breaks, there is still room for a short-term rally.
If 1.1939 breaks, expect a pullback and cooling off.
Don’t just look at the gains now.
What really matters is whether funds dare to push BEAT past 1.28.
Risk warning:
This article is for market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and cautious decisions.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $BTC $ETH $HYPE
Counter-trend pump
What do you think she’s trying to do?
Is the market maker doing charity?🙈
Just thinking about it makes me happy
Wake up
Pumping also costs money
BSB looks bullish in the short term, but don’t treat it as a no-brainer rocket before breaking 1.02.
This wave has surged from 0.5000 all the way to 1.0198, now hovering around 0.9726, with a 24-hour increase of 84.47%.
This kind of rise isn’t an ordinary rebound; it’s clear that capital is entering aggressively to grab chips.
But the problem is straightforward:
The sharper the rise, the more you fear a sudden high-level sell-off.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 0.9608, MA10 at 0.9484, and MA20 at 0.9198.
The current price is above all short-term moving averages, so short-term bulls are still controlling the market.
Now these three levels are critical:
If 0.96 holds, continue to be bullish.
Breaking 1.02 will accelerate positive sentiment.
Breaking 0.919 will cool down the strong structure.
What makes BSB most attractive now isn’t the gains, but its ability to maintain rhythm in a highly volatile market.
BTC and ETH are both pressured by macro factors and liquidity, but new coins like BSB tend to become emotional outlets for short-term funds.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗?
Pizza Day is originally the most casino-like festival in the crypto circle.
Hash predictions, BTC prize pools, on-chain randomness—all essentially put “consensus” and “luck” on the table.
BSB’s market is similar.
Do you say it’s purely based on fundamentals?
Unrealistic.
Do you say it’s purely based on sentiment?
Also incomplete.
What really drives it is: new coin hype, short-term funds, contract volatility, and amplified trading volume all stacking up.
#IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后
If super assets like SpaceX and OpenAI continue to attract market attention, risk appetite will be reactivated.
But this is a double-edged sword for the crypto market.
On one side, tech narratives heat up capital sentiment.
On the other, liquidity might be diverted by giant IPOs.
So BSB can’t just rely on external stories to push hard; it must prove strength through its own trading volume and order book.
#HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号
The long-short struggle in HYPE shows the market isn’t in a slow rise environment anymore; sentiment triggers immediate squeezes.
BSB has the same vibe.
Once the price stabilizes above 1.00, short pressure will continue to increase.
But if 0.96 breaks, chasing buyers will exit quickly.
My judgment is straightforward:
BSB is currently strong and bullish.
If 0.96 holds, bulls remain in control.
Breaking 1.02 means more room for a short-term rally.
Breaking 0.919 means a pullback and cooling off.
Don’t just look at how much it has risen now.
What really matters is whether capital dares to firmly push BSB above 1.02.
Risk warning:
This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high.
Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $BTC $ETH $NEAR
Brothers who kept up are eating meat
I said it last night
Break 21
Dip to 2
Get rich overnight
Let's see
ETH short-term continues to look bearish, 2100 is no longer a distant support but an immediate pressure test.
The current price is around 2070.90, down 2.25% in 24 hours, squeezed down from 2140.61 to 2055.58.
This is not a normal pullback.
This is a weak rebound after breaking below the moving average.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 2074.44, MA10 at 2073.50, MA20 at 2083.56.
The current price is all below the short moving averages, indicating bears are still controlling the market.
The three lines are very straightforward now:
If 2083 is not reclaimed, ETH remains weak.
If 2055 breaks, panic below 2100 will continue to intensify.
Only if 2140 is recovered can we talk about repair and reversal.
If 2055 is broken a second time, the market will likely refocus on the 2000 round number.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗?
Pizza Day can bring sentiment but cannot defend ETH's support line.
ETH's current problem is not community enthusiasm but whether funds have returned.
On-chain activity, DeFi, L2, stablecoin settlements—all these fundamentals remain, but the market has already given the answer: short-term buying power is not strong enough.
#IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后
SpaceX has submitted an S-1 prospectus to the SEC, aiming to raise about $75 billion, with valuation possibly reaching $1.75 to $2 trillion; market news also says OpenAI is accelerating its IPO process, and these mega tech IPOs may absorb a large amount of global liquidity.
This is pressure on ETH, not pure good news.
If funds chase mega assets like SpaceX and OpenAI, short-term investors may be less willing to add positions in highly volatile crypto assets.
#HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号
HYPE liquidations in the past 24 hours are about $24.66 million, with short liquidations about $18.01 million, indicating very intense leverage battles in the market.
This is a reminder for ETH:
This is not a slow bull environment; whoever has heavier leverage gets liquidated first.
If ETH breaks 2055, it can easily trigger a new round of stop-losses and contract liquidations.
My judgment is straightforward:
ETH is currently weak.
If 2083 is not reclaimed, continue to look bearish.
If 2055 breaks, 2000 will be repriced.
Only if 2140 is reclaimed can we look for repair.
Don't rush to write about ETH counterattack now.
It must first prove one thing: can bulls push the price back above 2083.
Risk warning:
This article is only an analysis of the crypto market information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and the market risk is high.
Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $BTC $HYPE $NEAR
Hold on even if you can't!
BTC short-term outlook remains bearish; unless it reclaims 76,288, any rebound is just a weak correction.
Currently, the price is around 75,954, down 1.05% in 24 hours, pressured from 77,866 down to 75,620. This is not a normal pullback but a continued decline after a high-level failure.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 75,960, MA10 at 75,912, and MA20 at 76,288.
The price is just hugging MA5 and MA10, with real resistance at MA20.
In other words, BTC is not strong now; it’s just catching its breath after falling too fast.
The three lines are clear now:
If 76,288 is not reclaimed, BTC remains weak.
Only if 77,000 is recovered will there be quality correction.
If 75,620 breaks, 75,000 will be retested.
This Pizza Day is very hot; in OKX’s Pizza Day event, the Hash Bonus will use the last three digits of the first BTC block hash after a specified time as the winning number, giving participants a chance to share a 1 BTC prize pool.
But events are events, and the market is the market.
Pizza Day can boost sentiment but cannot directly fix the moving averages.
The biggest problem for BTC now is not the lack of topics but that buyers have not pushed the price back above 76,288.
#IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 This trend is not purely positive either.
Super IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic appearing together will indeed strengthen the tech and risk asset narrative but may also drain market liquidity; reports mention SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion with a valuation around $1.75 trillion, and giants like OpenAI may also absorb large amounts of capital.
This is a double-edged sword for BTC.
On one side, SpaceX and OpenAI drive tech risk appetite.
On the other, funds may flow from crypto markets to the US stock primary market.
#HYPE多空决战 also reminds BTC of one thing: the market leverage is very high now.
CoinGlass data shows HYPE liquidations of about $24.66 million in the past 24 hours, with short liquidations around $18.01 million, indicating very intense long-short battles.
In this environment, once BTC breaks key levels, it can easily trigger chain stop-losses.
My judgment is straightforward:
BTC is currently weak.
If 76,288 is not reclaimed, continue to expect bearishness.
If 75,620 breaks, downside space will open.
Only if 77,000 is reclaimed will short-term recovery be considered.
Don’t be misled by Pizza Day, IPOs, or HYPE liquidation stories now.
What BTC really needs to prove is whether funds can push the price back above 76,288.
Risk warning:
This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and market risks are high.
Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $ETH $HYPE $ZEC
Azu
Stop it
Outside are all bears
You can't hold on
Hold on!
You can't hold on!
ETH short-term bearish, if 2111 breaks again, the market will directly target the 2100 support line.
It's not about a 0.56% drop now.
The problem is that after ETH was pushed down from 2153, the rebound didn't even get back above the short moving averages.
This indicates that funds are not rushing to accumulate but waiting for a lower position.
In the 15-minute structure, MA5 is at 2121.49, MA10 at 2126.13, MA20 at 2125.99.
Current price 2119.26, all below the short moving averages.
This is not a strong shakeout.
This is a weak recovery after a breakdown.
Now the three lines are very clear:
If 2126 is not regained, ETH continues to be weak.
Breaking through 2153 is considered a return to strength.
Breaking 2111 means 2100 will most likely be tested.
If 2100 can't hold either, the market will start to reconsider the 2000 round number.
The pressure on ETH this round mainly comes from macro factors.
#Interest rate hikes back on the discussion table: US Treasury yields near 19-year highs
The 30-year US Treasury yield once approached 5.2%, near a 19-year high. The higher the interest rate, the less the market is willing to give high volatility assets a high valuation.
ETH is different from BTC.
BTC can still rely on corporate reserves and hard asset narratives.
ETH depends more on liquidity, on-chain activity, DeFi, L2, and risk appetite.
When money becomes expensive, assets like ETH are more likely to be the first to have their valuations suppressed.
#SpaceX files IPO prospectus: first disclosure of BTC holdings
The SpaceX IPO disclosure has refocused the market on corporate BTC holdings. Although reports vary in details, the core signal is clear: BTC is continuing to enter traditional corporate balance sheet narratives.
This is a positive sentiment boost for the crypto market.
But short-term it benefits BTC more.
ETH needs to keep up and cannot rely solely on BTC spillover.
It needs to see on-chain fees, ETF funds, L2 activity, and DeFi demand all warming up together.
Currently, the market has not given this signal.
#How crypto people celebrate Pizza Day
Pizza Day is not for shouting price increases.
On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTC, considered one of Bitcoin's earliest real-world transactions.
For ETH, the question is more practical:
Is there real usage on-chain?
Do applications have sustained revenue?
Are funds willing to continue valuing the Ethereum ecosystem?
If these don't improve simultaneously, holiday sentiment won't support the price.
My judgment is straightforward:
ETH is currently weak.
If 2126 is not regained, continue to be bearish.
Breaking 2111 means 2100 will be tested.
Breaking 2153 means looking for a recovery reversal.
Don't rush to write off ETH's counterattack now.
It must first reclaim 2126, or the bears remain more active.
Risk warning:
This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices fluctuate greatly, and the market risk is high.
Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
#披萨节狂欢:预测哈希能赢BTC,你敢预测一下吗? #IPO大年:SpaceX领跑,OpenAI紧随其后 #HYPE多空决战:最大空头爆仓删号 $BTC $HYPE $ZEC
BTC is bearish in the short term, don’t get carried away by the Pizza Day and SpaceX holding stories.
The most dangerous thing now isn’t a 0.17% drop, but that after the price was pushed down to 77,088, it hasn’t reclaimed even 77,300.
If the 76,930–76,760 range breaks down again, BTC will most likely continue to seek support lower.
The 15-minute structure is already very clear.
MA5 is at 77,248, MA10 at 77,342, MA20 at 77,312.
The current price is all below the short-term moving averages.
This is not a strong pullback, it’s a weak rebound.
Right now, I’m only watching three levels:
If 77,300 can’t be reclaimed, BTC remains weak.
A break above 77,866 is needed for quality recovery.
A break below 76,760 means short-term further downside.
This round of pressure mainly comes from macro factors.
#InterestRateHikeBackOnTheTable: US Treasury yields near 19-year highs
The 30-year US Treasury yield recently approached 5.2%, near a 19-year high. High rates directly suppress risk asset valuations.
No matter the BTC story, it faces a reality:
When money gets expensive, the market won’t blindly chase volatile assets higher.
#SpaceXFilesIPO: First disclosure of BTC holdings
SpaceX disclosed holding 18,712 BTC, worth about $1.45 billion, which indeed strengthens the narrative of corporate BTC allocation.
But this is not an immediate buy order to pump the price.
It’s a medium-to-long-term sentiment boost, not short-term support capital.
#HowCryptoPeopleCelebratePizzaDay
Pizza Day is definitely worth commemorating.
On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTC, one of Bitcoin’s earliest real-world transactions.
But today’s market won’t automatically rise just because of a holiday.
What crypto people really need to watch isn’t the pizza, but whether the price can hold key levels.
My judgment is straightforward:
BTC is currently weak.
If 77,300 isn’t reclaimed, continue to be bearish.
A break above 77,866 means looking for recovery.
A break below 76,760 will make the short term look worse.
Don’t rush to write off a BTC counterattack now.
First, see if it can take back 77,300.
Risk warning:
This article is for crypto market information analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Digital asset prices are highly volatile and the market carries high risk.
Please make independent judgments and decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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