punk2898 🙌💎

Settled in Singapore, high-frequency quantification

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If hyperliquid:native becomes the “Nasdaq” of the crypto world, the biggest loser will be Binance, because a rising new force will swallow the territory of the old powerhouses. Since Binance secured the top global market share, it has only had two challengers at most. 1. The first is FTX: a politically correct compliant exchange challenge. Based on FTX’s momentum back then, the US and European markets would have belonged to FTX, not to mention the later US stock market. But due to FTX’s reckless operations, it ultimately destroyed itself. One of Binance’s clever moves at the time was to invest in FTX—not for investment returns but to monitor developments in real time and formulate corresponding strategies. This played a decisive role at that time. 2. The second is Hype: a new species meeting non-KYC demands. The emergence of new species is unpredictable. When Hype first appeared, no one was optimistic and it had few users, but a successful TGE brought it to center stage. It’s somewhat like "Luckin Coffee"—the Chinese coffee market is huge and promising, the logic is sound but hard to implement. They kept subsidizing until going public, and after many years and much money, the logic finally materialized. Hype is similar. Many large investors don’t want to use Binance or OKX, let alone Coinbase. Their only choice is Hype, and most importantly, Hype’s liquidity is indeed good (this is due to technology and financial strength). 3. How does Binance respond to this new challenger? Binance noticed this and allocated core resources to create Aster, just as the elder said: "If it benefits the country, one should face life and death without avoiding misfortune or fortune." Thus, Aster went from a nobody no one believed in to the center stage, working overtime relentlessly (though people still complain). However, Aster’s initial resistance was effective but lacked follow-up strength, because CZ is good at the traditional "build strong fortifications and fight stubbornly" approach like Zeng Guofan, which doesn’t work well against a new era species like Hype. - Hype is not as ostentatious as FTX and controls funds well. - Hype’s team values privacy more and has bodyguards everywhere, making them hard to catch. CZ’s method is that of a good student, waiting for the opponent to make mistakes, but Hype hasn’t made any yet, so proactive offense might be the only option. 4. What is Hype’s Achilles’ heel? In the FTX era, it would have been non-compliance; one SEC inquiry letter would have left Hype half dead. But at the current time, it’s uncertain whether the SEC will act or has the motivation to do so. Another is the vampire kilometer; Aster has already tried this. It started well, but as Aster’s circulation grows, it not only needs to target Hype but also consider how to maintain its own market value. However, CZ is a long-term thinker. If he is determined to fight Hype to the end, Aster is currently the best card, bar none.

All publicly listed company owners should learn from Musk's masterful moves; it's hard to count how many birds he caught with one stone. His think tank is truly powerful (in-depth analysis) The actual cost is almost zero, yet he acquired AI infrastructure with a book value of $60 billion. TL;DR version: 1️⃣ Use tomorrow's money to do today's work (although I don't want to say Jia Yueting did this most slickly) 2️⃣ Inject AI narrative into IPO valuation (AI valuation far exceeds aerospace) 3️⃣ Preemptively freeze competitors (stock options are great) 4️⃣ Protect the IPO timeline (the listing window is the most important) 5️⃣ Annoy OpenAI (it would be so frustrating if OpenAI acquired it) Detailed analysis 🧵 Based on the application content, here’s exactly how Cursor was acquired: "SpaceX has the right (not the obligation) to acquire Cursor at an implied valuation of $60 billion. If they back out, they must pay a $1 billion termination fee + $8.5 billion deferred service fee. Cursor’s valuation was unilaterally anchored at $60 billion by Musk." A bit dizzying? Let me break it down for you: - Stock options are really useful: use tomorrow’s money to do today’s work Actually, the agreement is to acquire Cursor with SpaceX stock 30 days after the IPO. If the market cap is controlled at $2 trillion then, the cost would be even lower, possibly as low as $3 billion (Cursor receives stock, but whether they sell it is unknown). - Inject AI narrative into IPO valuation This is the key. By announcing the Cursor deal before the IPO, SpaceX positions itself as an AI company rather than an aerospace/telecom company—AI companies have completely different valuation multiples on Wall Street. Combined with the previous xAI merger, the full AI story is completed in three steps. - Preemptively freeze competitors Cursor was originally going to do a $2 billion financing round at a $50 billion valuation with a16z, Thrive Capital, and Nvidia lined up. SpaceX’s option agreement immediately froze this round, cutting off all other talks with Cursor. - Protect the IPO timeline If the $60 billion acquisition was completed now, the S-1 would have to be rewritten and confidential filings updated, definitely delaying the IPO. The $1 billion termination fee + $8.5 billion service fee “breakup fee” is defined by analysts as a “strategic insurance fee to protect the IPO timeline.” - Annoy OpenAI OpenAI was an early investor in Cursor. Musk’s lawsuit trial started less than a week after the Cursor deal announcement. Musk sues Altman while simultaneously taking the fastest-growing company in OpenAI’s early portfolio (Cursor’s ARR reached $2 billion by February 2026 with only a 50-person team) all at once. Narratively, this is a dimensionality reduction strike. How many goals were achieved with one move? Truly impressive.